ActiVote 2022 Polling
This page contains the 22 general election polls ActiVote published during the 2022 Midterms. Each poll focused on the margin between the (top) Democrat and (top) Republican in a race. We predicted 95% of the winners correctly (we predicted 15R vs. 7D, while it should have been 16R vs. 6D). Our average error was 5.3%, which was better than expected: based on the average sample size of 261 we predicted an average error of 6.3%). Our polls had on average a 2.3% Democratic bias, meaning that the actual margin between candidates was on average 2.3% more favorable for the Republican candidate, then our polls predicted.
New York Governor
Published: Nov 6th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 260 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
New York US Senate
Published: Nov 6th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 279 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
Texas Governor
Published: Nov 5th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 722 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 4%
Florida Governor
Published: Nov 5th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 321 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 5%
Pennsylvania Governor
Published: Nov 5th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 249 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
Ohio Governor
Published: Nov 5th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 248 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
North Carolina US Senate
Published: Nov 3rd, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 250 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
Texas Criminal Appeals Court Judge – Place 5
Published: Nov 2nd, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 269 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
California Lt. Governor
Published: Nov 1st, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 200 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 7%
Texas Criminal Appeals Court Judge – Place 6
Published: Oct 29th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 235 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
Texas Supreme Court Justice – Place 5
Published: Oct 28th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 256 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
Texas Supreme Court Justice – Place 9
Published: Oct 28th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 252 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
California Governor
Published: Oct 27th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 200 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 7%
California US Senate
Published: Oct 20th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 208 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 7%
Texas Public Accounts Comptroller
Published: Oct 19th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 204 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 7%
Texas Railroad Commission
Published: Oct 18th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 212 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 7%
Texas Land Commissioner
Published: Oct 17th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 205 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 7%
Florida US Senate
Published: Sep 25th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 210 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 7%
Texas Governor
Published: Sep 12th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 323 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
Texas Lt. Governor
Published: Sep 12th, 2022
Sample Size: 250 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 6%
Texas Attorney General
Published: Sep 12th, 2022 (post)
Sample Size: 209 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 7%
Texas Agriculture Commissioner
Published: Sep 12th, 2022
Sample Size: 184 likely voters
Period: last 90 days
Average Expected Error: 7%
