Pritzker Holds Wide Lead Over Bailey in Illinois Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 31, 2026 Illinois Governor poll finds that Democrat J.B. Pritzker leads Republican Darren Bailey by 18.0%. The poll was in the field between October 23 and October 31 (median field date of October 27). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Compared with our October 22 poll, Pritzker’s lead is little changed, at 18.0% against 17.4%.
Pritzker leads among suburban and urban voters, voters under 65, women, White, Black and Latino voters, voters at every income level, though only narrowly among voters on low incomes, 51% to 49%, and voters with a high school or college education. Bailey leads among rural voters, voters aged 65 and older and graduate degree holders, and he narrowly leads among men, 51% to 49%. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Illinois does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Pritzker and Bailey among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Illinois electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Pritzker holds his own side more firmly. Each candidate takes all of their own wing (100%), but Pritzker takes 99% of the moderate left while Bailey takes 80% of the moderate right. Pritzker also wins the center, by 75% to 25%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | J.B. Pritzker | Darren Bailey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 23% | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 39% | 20% | 99% | 1% | |
| Center | 16% | 20% | 75% | 25% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 20% | 20% | 80% | |
| Right | 7% | 20% | 0% | 100% | |
| Region | rural | 24% | 25% | 39% | 61% |
| suburban | 29% | 30% | 59% | 41% | |
| urban | 47% | 45% | 70% | 30% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 36% | 13% | 78% | 22% |
| 30-49 | 32% | 25% | 68% | 32% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 22% | 63% | 37% | |
| 65+ | 9% | 40% | 46% | 54% | |
| Gender | F | 49% | 53% | 68% | 32% |
| M | 51% | 47% | 49% | 51% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 74% | 79% | 54% | 46% |
| Black | 8% | 10% | 84% | 16% | |
| Latino | 13% | 6% | 83% | 17% | |
| Income | Low | 25% | 23% | 51% | 49% |
| Middle | 34% | 30% | 54% | 46% | |
| High | 41% | 47% | 66% | 34% | |
| Education | HS | 16% | 23% | 63% | 37% |
| College | 73% | 60% | 61% | 39% | |
| Grad | 11% | 17% | 47% | 53% |