Pritzker Leads Bailey in Illinois Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 22, 2026 Illinois Governor poll finds that Democrat J.B. Pritzker leads Republican Darren Bailey by 17.4%. The poll was in the field between October 2 and October 22 (median field date of October 12). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Pritzker leads among suburban and urban voters, voters of every age, women, White, Black and Latino voters, voters on middle and high incomes, and at every level of education. Bailey leads among rural voters and men, and he narrowly leads among voters on low incomes, 51% to 49%. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Illinois does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Pritzker and Bailey among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Illinois electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Pritzker holds his side of the spectrum more firmly than Bailey holds his. Pritzker wins the left unanimously (100%) and takes 97% of the moderate left, while Bailey takes 89% of the right and 86% of the moderate right. On top of that, Pritzker wins the center by 72% to 28%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | J.B. Pritzker | Darren Bailey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 40% | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 30% | 20% | 97% | 3% | |
| Center | 13% | 20% | 72% | 28% | |
| Moderate Right | 8% | 20% | 14% | 86% | |
| Right | 10% | 20% | 11% | 89% | |
| Region | rural | 30% | 25% | 38% | 62% |
| suburban | 27% | 30% | 52% | 48% | |
| urban | 43% | 45% | 74% | 26% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 32% | 13% | 72% | 28% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 25% | 57% | 43% | |
| 50-64 | 17% | 22% | 67% | 33% | |
| 65+ | 13% | 40% | 51% | 49% | |
| Gender | F | 43% | 53% | 72% | 28% |
| M | 57% | 47% | 44% | 56% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 65% | 79% | 53% | 47% |
| Black | 11% | 10% | 79% | 21% | |
| Latino | 17% | 6% | 82% | 18% | |
| Income | Low | 24% | 23% | 49% | 51% |
| Middle | 34% | 30% | 59% | 41% | |
| High | 42% | 47% | 63% | 37% | |
| Education | HS | 22% | 23% | 61% | 39% |
| College | 63% | 60% | 58% | 42% | |
| Grad | 15% | 17% | 59% | 41% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Pritzker | Bailey | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22, 2026 | 58.7% | 41.3% | D+17.4% | 400 | ±4.9% |