Why trust our polls?
The method
How a poll gets made here, from who answers to how the numbers are weighted.
How we poll
Our polls run inside the ActiVote app, among verified registered voters who chose to be there. The methodology sets out the sampling frame, the weighting targets, how likely voters are identified, and what the expected error on a poll of a given size actually means.
Read the methodology →The record
Published, with the misses left in — measured against actual results, not against our hopes.
Accuracy analysis
How far off our polls have been, by sample size and by type of race — the basis for the expected error printed on every poll we publish.
See the numbers →2024 Most Valuable Pollster rankings
After the 2024 cycle we ranked over a hundred pollsters — ourselves included — on accuracy per poll, and published the method along with the table.
Probability vs non-probability polling
The old dividing line in the industry, tested against a real election: which approach actually predicted 2024 better.
Our own 2024 recap
Every race we polled in 2024, next to the result — the same comparison anyone else would run on us.
Disclosure
What we commit to publish about every poll, and to whom.
AAPOR Transparency Initiative
We are a member, which obliges us to answer the same disclosure questions for every published poll. Our answers, in full.
Polling standards questionnaire
The transparency questionnaire we completed for the news organisations that vet pollsters.
Crosstabs on every poll
Not a disclosure document but the real test: sample sizes, field dates and full group breakdowns published with each poll.
Ask us
Questions about our polling go straight to the person who runs it — Victor Allis, Chief Pollster. Write to info@activote.net.
Made by real, named humans
ActiVote is an American company, founded in 2019 and built by three people who put their names on the work. Nonpartisan by design: we never tell you what to think, only what your ballot says and what America answered.
