Trump’s Resilient Lead

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Trump’s Resilient Lead

ActiVote’s June 5, 2024 presidential poll finds that in a two-way matchup former President Trump leads current President Biden by 3.8%. In the three-way matchup Robert Kennedy Jr takes votes from both Biden and Trump equally, resulting in an identical lead of 3.8% for former President Trump. The polls were in the field between May 23 and June 4 (median field date of May 29)

Trump vs. Biden

This poll was among 1671 likely presidential election voters and has a mean average error of 2.4%.

In the two-way matchup, Trump is strongest among rural voters, while Biden wins urban voters. Biden wins the younger voters, while Trump wins older voters. Trump wins men, while Biden wins women. Both win a large majority of those affiliated with their party, while Trump narrowly leads among independents.

Compared to 2020, Biden seems to struggle with Black voters (74% support) as well as with Latino voters of whom 46% support Trump, significantly more than in 2020. While there are only small differences, Biden does better with those with high incomes and/or high education levels, while Trump does better with lower and middle income/education.

Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy

The poll was among 1775 likely presidential election voters and has a mean average error of 2.3%.

In the three-way poll we see the same general pattern when looking at Trump and Biden: Trump wins rural voters, Biden wins urban voters, Biden wins younger voters, Trump wins older voters, etc. The more interesting question is where RFK’s votes are coming from. The following table shows for Donald Trump (DT) and Joe Biden (JB) what percentage of votes they lost to RFK.

Noteworthy is that Trump loses more female voters to RFK than Biden, while Biden loses more male voters. Especially significant is how many young voters are considering abandoning Biden for RFK.

Political Spectrum

The graph below shows the support for each of the candidates among left, moderate left, centrist, moderate right and right voters.

In the two-way matchup, both candidates dominate their side of the spectrum: Biden gets 95% of the left leaning voters, while Trump gets 96% of the right leaning voters. The difference is made in the center: where Trump leads by 12 points, a group he lost by 10 points in 2020.

In the three-way matchup, Biden loses about 12% of his core supporters on the left, while Trump loses only about 7% of his supporters on the right. Among the centrists, of the 27% going to Kennedy, 16% came from Trump and 11% from Biden.

Thus, the “spoiler effect” created by Kennedy is a combination of a slightly higher effect on Biden’s core supporters than on Trump’s core supporters, while taking a few more centrists from Trump than from Biden, leading to a wash on the overall result. 

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