Trump vs Biden (March 2024)

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Trump vs Biden (March 2024)

ActiVote’s March 22, 2024 presidential poll finds that former President Trump leads current President Biden by 5.4%. 

The poll was taken among 1001 likely presidential election voters between March 8 and March 22 over ActiVote app users who recently updated their presidential candidate preference. The poll has been weighted to represent the national electorate (including voting chance in presidential elections) and has a mean average error of 3.1%.

Trump wins big in the rural areas, while Biden wins in urban areas, but with a smaller margin. Trump has a +6 lead in the suburbs. Please note our definition of these three categories are the ⅓ of zip codes with lowest, medium and highest population densities.

Biden leads with voters under 50, Trump wins the 50+ voters by large margins. Compared to previous presidential elections, the small margin by which Biden wins the 18-29 vote should be a concern for him.

There is a significant gender gap: Biden wins women by 8 points while Trump wins men by 22 points.

Twice as many Democrats defect from their parties nominee (13%) than Republicans do (6%). Trump also wins Independents by a significant margin (18%).

Trump wins the White vote by 20%. Biden loses just 16% of the Black vote. One of the main surprising findings of our poll is that Trump wins Latinos by a margin of 4%, a group that historically has voted for the Democratic candidate by significant margins.

Both with income and education, Trump does best with the middle group, while Biden does best with the highest incomes and the highest education, although the differences per category suggest that these categories are less of a predictor than other polls suggest.

If we look at voters on a political spectrum from left to right, there are no surprises: there are virtually no Trump supporters on the left of the political spectrum, while there are very few Biden supporters on the political right. Only in the middle of the spectrum (moderate left, centrists, moderate right) do we see split support for both candidates.

Thus, while some of the “uncommitted” voters on the progressive left in recent presidential primaries may have decided not to support Biden (e.g. for his Israel policies) in an election that had a foregone conclusion, this does not mean that they contemplate voting for former president Trump. 

Similarly, although there are staunchly conservative never-Trumpers (e.g: former representative Liz Cheney), there are very few of them who would vote for Biden.

This all suggests that on the ends of the political spectrum it will be a question of voter turnout, and thus enthusiasm, while in the middle of the political spectrum voters can be persuaded to vote one way or the other. At this point in time, former president Trump seems ahead in that enthusiasm-and-persuasion battle.

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Feel free to check out the polling page for details about our methodology and latest polls.