Trump Still Ahead After Convictions

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Trump Still Ahead After Convictions

ActiVote’s June 21, 2024 presidential poll finds that in a two-way matchup former President Trump leads current President Biden by 3.2%. In the three-way matchup Robert Kennedy Jr takes more votes from Trump resulting in a lead of just 1.6% for former President Trump. The polls were in the field between June 5 and June 21 (median field date of June 13)

Trump vs. Biden

This poll was among 2029 likely presidential election voters and has a mean average error of 2.2%.

In the two-way matchup, Trump is strongest among rural voters, while Biden wins urban voters. Biden wins the younger voters, while Trump wins older voters. Trump wins men, while Biden wins women. Both win a large majority of those affiliated with their party, while Trump leads among independents. Trump wins White voters, while Biden wins Black voters, although his 83% vote share is smaller than in 2020. We have Latino support evenly split. These results are in line with many of our earlier polls and seem aligned with most other nation-wide polls.

The surprising findings in this poll are in the income and education categories:  we have Biden doing better with lower income and less educated voters, while Trump does best with those with some college and those with middle incomes. This goes against the general consensus that Biden does better with college educated voters, while Trump does better with those with High School or less. It also goes against our findings in previous polls. Whether this is simply an outlier poll result, or the start of a trend remains to be seen.

Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy

The poll was among 2192 likely presidential election voters and has a mean average error of 2.1%.

In the three-way poll we see the same general pattern when looking at Trump and Biden: Trump wins rural voters, Biden wins urban voters, Biden wins younger voters, Trump wins older voters, etc. The more interesting question is where RFK’s votes are coming from. The following table shows for Donald Trump (DT) and Joe Biden (JB) what percentage of votes they lost to RFK.

Noteworthy is that Trump loses more female voters to RFK than Biden, while Biden loses more male voters. Especially significant is how many young voters are considering abandoning both candidates, but especially Biden for RFK.

Political Spectrum

The graph below shows the support for each of the candidates among left, moderate left, centrist, moderate right and right voters.

In the two-way matchup, both candidates dominate their side of the spectrum: Biden gets 94% of the left leaning voters, while Trump gets 94% of the right leaning voters. The difference is made in the center: where Trump leads by 16 points, a group he lost by 10 points in 2020.

In the three-way matchup, Biden loses about 9% of his core supporters on the left, while Trump loses 9% of his supporters on the right. Among the centrists, of the 29% going to Kennedy, 18% came from Trump and 9% from Biden.

Thus, the “spoiler effect” created by Kennedy is currently purely found in the center where Trump loses more potential supporters than Biden does. 

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