Trump stays comfortably ahead in Texas
ActiVote’s Sep 25, 2024 Texas Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 8.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 7, 2024 and September 24, 2024 with a median field date of September 16.
Please note that three elements in these crosstabs are unusual;
- Trump (79%) and Harris (70%) win only around 3/4 of the voters of their party. Texas does not register voters by party. We believe that this simply means the estimate of which voters are D and which are R is less accurate than in some other states.
- Harris takes only 66% of the Black vote, which seems very low. As the unweighted sample was only 5% of the sample size, the MoE of this category is close to 20% which can explain such an outlier.
- Harris loses the college-educated voters, who typically are more aligned with the Democratic party. In previous Texas polls we have seen 49%, 39% and 44% support from college-educated voters for Harris (resp. Biden), suggesting that this is a surprisingly consistent finding in our Texas polls.
Harris only wins urban, middle-aged (50-64), female, Democratic, Black, Latino, low income and voters with some college voters. Trump wins or ties every other category.
Political Spectrum
The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-red state of Texas, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 95% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 92% of his: the right and moderate right. Harris has a small lead among centrists.
Comparisons
Our August 31, 2024 poll had Trump +9.0%, while our August 13, 2024 poll had Trump +6.6%. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Texas by 5.6% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 9.0%.
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