Trump Only Narrowly Ahead
ActiVote’s July 16, 2024 presidential poll finds that in a two-way matchup former President Trump leads current President Biden by 1.0%. In the three-way matchup including Robert Kennedy Jr the lead grows to 2.0% for former President Trump. The polls were in the field between July 7 and July 15 (median field date of July 11).
Trump vs. Biden
This poll was among 1000 likely presidential election voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
In the two-way matchup, Trump is strongest among rural voters, while Biden wins urban voters. Biden wins the younger voters, while Trump wins older voters. Trump wins men, while Biden wins women. Both win a large majority of those affiliated with their party, while Trump leads among independents. Trump wins White voters, while Biden wins Black voters and narrowly wins among Latinos.
In the income and education categories, the middle groups are evenly split, while Biden wins low income voters and highly educated voters, while Trump wins high income voters and those with the least amount of formal education.
Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy
The poll was among 1000 likely presidential election voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
In the three-way poll we see the same general pattern when looking at Trump and Biden: Trump wins rural voters, Biden wins urban voters, Biden wins younger voters, Trump wins older voters, etc. The more interesting question is where RFK’s votes are coming from. The following table shows for Donald Trump (DT) and Joe Biden (JB) what percentage of votes they lost to RFK.
Noteworthy is that Trump loses more female voters to RFK than Biden, while Biden loses more male voters. Especially significant is how many young voters and independents are considering abandoning both candidates.
Political Spectrum
The following tables and graphs below show the support for each of the candidates among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
Trump vs. Biden
In the two-way matchup, both candidates dominate their side of the spectrum: Biden gets 93% of the left leaning voters, while Trump gets 94% of the right leaning voters. In this poll they are tied among those in the center.
Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy
In the three-way matchup, Biden loses about 14% of his core supporters on the left, while Trump loses only 7% of his supporters on the right. Among the centrists, of the 30% going to Kennedy, 15% each came from Trump and Biden.
Thus, the “spoiler effect” created by Kennedy is currently purely found on the left, where Biden loses more potential supporters, than that Trump loses on the right.
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