Trump Narrowly Ahead in Georgia

ActiVote’s September 10, 2024 Georgia Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 0.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 8, 2024 and September 10, 2024 with a median field date of August 25.

Please note that the crosstabs below are provided with the sole purpose of giving insight into the nature of our poll, such as the targets we weight to per category and the difference between unweighted and weighted cohorts. The crosstabs are not necessarily an accurate indication of exact expected vote shares in each category due to the 10%+ margin-of-error per subcategory in a poll of just 400 likely voters. E.g., a listed vote share of 55% could, in approximately 1 out of 20 polls, really be as little as 45%, or as much as 65%.

Trump leads among rural voters, while Harris leads among urban voters. The age distribution looks somewhat surprising, suggesting no clear pattern. Trump leads among men, while Harris leads among women. Both take almost 80% of those deemed affiliation with their party: please note that in Georgia party affiliation is not part of the voter rolls, which makes our estimate of party affiliation less accurate in Georgia than in the 30 states that do have it as part of the voter rolls. 

Trump leads among independents. Trump leads among White voters, while Harris leads among Black and Latino voters. Harris leads low-income voters, while Trump leads among those with middle and high incomes. Harris leads among those with the least education, while Trump leads among those with a college degree. This is in contradiction with what most national polls find and is likely an outlier result. 

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Georgia, the distribution over these categories is not exactly equal to the national average.

Harris gets 95% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump struggles a bit with the moderate right in Georgia: he takes only 81% of those voters. He does, however, have a 10% lead among centrists.

Comparisons

In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Georgia by 0.2% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 5.1%.

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