Trump Leads with Expected Margin in Missouri

ActiVote’s Aug 22, 2024 Missouri Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris 17.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between July 25, 2024 and August 22, 2024 with a median field date of August 7. 

Harris only leads in urban areas, among those under 50 years of age, Democrats, Blacks and those with the lowest incomes. Trump leads among all other groups, even among Missouri women by a small margin..

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Missouri, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.

Harris gets 92% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left). Trump does even better among his core constituency (the right and moderate right) claiming 95% of the vote. Trump also has a significant edge among the centrists (+20%). Trump’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in red Missouri.

Comparisons

In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Missouri by 15.4% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 18.6%. Thus, a Trump lead of 17.4% is aligned with the recent presidential elections in Missouri..

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