Trump Leads in Ohio

ActiVote’s Aug 22, 2024 Ohio Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 7.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 28, 2024 and September 30, 2024 with a median field date of September 13. 

Please note that in this poll the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black and Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.

Harris leads among urban voters, the elderly (65+), Democrats, High income, and those with a 4-year college degree. Trump leads or ties all other categories.

Please note that Ohio does not register voters by party affiliation so that the inferred party affiliation from the voter file may be less accurate than in some other states, possibly explaining why Harris loses 11% of “Democrats” and Trump loses 19% of “Republicans”.

Unlike most of our other polls, we are not finding a significant gender split in this poll. This is most likely an outlier, caused by the relatively small sample of women in our unweighted sample.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Ohio, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.

Harris gets 95% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Trump gets 94% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Trump also has a small lead among the centrists (+2%). Trump’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in light-red Ohio.

Comparisons

In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Ohio by 8.0% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 8.1%. Our August 22nd poll had Trump +12.4%.

Want to be included in our next poll? Check out the app!

Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.