Trump Leads Harris in Texas

ActiVote’s Aug 13, 2024 Texas Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 6.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between July 31, 2024 and August 13, 2024 with a median field date of August 6. 

Trump leads among rural and suburban voters, while Harris leads among urban voters. Trump leads all age categories, except for the youngest voters, which Harris leads by a large margin. Trump leads among men, while Harris narrowly leads among women. Both candidates lead handily among their party, while Trump leads among independents. Trump leads among Whites, while Harris leads among Blacks and Latinos. Harris leads among those with the lowest incomes and those with some college, while Trump leads among the other income and education categories.

Please note that the unweighted sample for Blacks is just on the lower boundary of inclusion in our poll (5%) and therefore has an especially large margin-of-error. 

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Trump and Harris among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Texas, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.

Both candidates dominate among their core constituencies (the left and moderate left for Harris, and the right and moderate right for Trump), each taking 93% of the vote. Trump has a small edge among the center. The large Trump lead is due to the fact that there are simply more right-leaning than left-leaning voters in Texas.

Comparisons

In a previous ActiVote poll of July 19th, days before Biden dropped out of the race, we had Trump leading Biden by 8.8%. Thus, Harris currently polls 2.2% better than Biden at that time. 

In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Texas by 5.6% while in 2016 he beat Clinton by 9.0%. Thus, Harris currently polls a bit worse in Texas than Biden’s result in 2020, while she polls a bit better than Clinton’s result in 2016.

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