Trump Leads Comfortably in Indiana

ActiVote’s Oct 1, 2024 Indiana Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 14.0%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 28, 2024 and September 30, 2024 with a median field date of September 13. 

Please note that in this poll the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black and Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.

Harris leads among the elderly (65+), Democrats and low income voters and ties among women. Trump leads or ties all other categories.

Please note that Indiana does not register by party affiliation so that the inferred party affiliation from the voter file may be less accurate than in some other states, possibly explaining why Harris loses 20% of “Democrats” and Trump loses 18% of “Republicans”.

Please also note that the result for urban voters seems unexpected. As only 13% of the state of Indiana is deemed “urban” (based on zip code density), the sample of urban voters has a high Margin-of-Error, making that this finding could be an outlier.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Indiana, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.

Harris gets 98% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Trump gets 94% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Trump also has a large lead among the centrists (+22%). Trump’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in red Indiana.

Comparisons

In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Indiana by 16.1% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 19.2%.

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Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.