Trump Extends Lead over Harris
ActiVote’s July 30, 2024 presidential poll finds that in a two-way matchup former President Trump leads current Vice President Harris by 2.6%. In a three-way matchup including Robert Kennedy Jr., his lead is reduced to 1.2%. The polls were in the field between July 24 and July 29 (median field date of July 27).
The polls were among 1000 likely presidential election voters and have an average expected error of 3.1%.
Trump vs. Harris
Trump is strongest among rural voters, while Harris has the edge among suburban and urban voters. Harris wins the voters under 50, while Trump wins voters over 50. Trump wins men, while Harris wins women. Both win the same large majority of those affiliated with their party, while Trump has a significant lead among independents. Trump wins White voters, while Harris wins Black voters. Latinos are evenly divided. In the income and education categories, we find only small differences.
Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy
The overall picture does not change much with Kennedy in the mix, although Kennedy takes slightly more voters from Trump than from Harris. A detailed analysis of key losses to Kennedy is showing in the following table:
Trump loses 5.9% of his voters to Kennedy, while Harris loses just 4.4%. In most categories, both candidates lose approximately equally to Kennedy, but a few groups stand out: Kennedy takes a significant number of Republicans from Trump, while he takes a significant number of Independents from Harris. Also, some of the Latinos considering voting for Trump may go for Kennedy if given the opportunity.
Political Spectrum
The following tables and graphs below show the support for Trump, Harris and Kennedy among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
Trump vs. Harris
Both candidates do equally well on their side of the spectrum: Harris gets 94% of the left leaning voters, while Trump gets 94% of the right leaning voters. Trump’s advantage is in the center, where he has a 16% lead over Harris.
Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy
Kennedy takes significantly more centrist votes from Trump (13%) than from Harris (7%), explaining the smaller lead for Trump in the three-way matchup than in the two-way matchup.
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