Trump – Biden – Kennedy

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Trump – Biden – Kennedy

 ActiVote’s April 10th, 2024 presidential poll finds that in a two-way matchup former President Trump leads current President Biden by 5.8%, but that in a three-way matchup including Robert Kennedy Jr, Trump’s lead shrinks to 3.3%. The polls were in the field between March 24 and April 10 (median field date of April 2) 

Trump vs. Biden

This poll was among 995 likely presidential election voters and has a mean average error of 3.1%.

In the two-way matchup, Trump is strongest among rural voters, while Biden wins urban voters. Biden narrowly wins the youngest voters, while Trump does best among the elderly. Trump wins men, while Biden wins among women. Both win a large majority of those affiliated with their party, while Trump leads among independents.

Concerning for Biden should be that 19% of Black voters and 41% of Latino voters support Trump, significantly more than in 2020. Finally, Biden does best with high-income voters, while Trump does best with middle incomes. Somewhat surprisingly, we don’t find significant differences based on education levels.

Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy

The poll was among 1083 likely presidential election voters and has a mean average error of 3.0%.

In the three-way poll we see the same general pattern when looking at Trump and Biden: Trump wins rural voters, Biden wins urban voters, Biden wins younger voters, Trump wins older voters, etc. 

The more interesting question is where RFK’s votes are coming from. The following table shows for DT and JB what percentage of votes they lost to RFK.

In almost all groups former president Trump loses more voters to Robert Kennedy than president Biden does. Thus, our polls find that the “spoiler effect” of Robert Kennedy is a slightly higher threat to Trump than to Biden.

Political Spectrum

The graph below shows the support for each of the candidates in 10 slices of the political spectrum from left to right.

In the left 3 slices, there is virtually no support for former president Trump, while Kennedy has approximately 6% support. In the right 3 slices, there is virtually no support for president Biden, while Kennedy has support from 7%, 12% and 15% of the voters. Thus, Biden loses fewer of his core supporters to Kennedy than Trump does.

In the center 4 slices of the political spectrum, Kennedy finds the largest number of supporters, taking votes away that potentially could go to either candidate.

All in all, it seems that Biden should have some concerns about losing centrist voters to Kennedy, while Trump should be concerned with both centrist voters and some of his base going to Kennedy.

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