Trump and Harris exactly tied in North Carolina
ActiVote’s Aug 31, 2024 North Carolina Presidential poll shows that former President Trump and Vice President Harris are exactly tied at 50.0% each. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 6, 2024 and August 31, 2024 with a median field date of August 18.
Please note that our definition of rural, suburban and urban is based on the population density of zip codes: the ⅓ of our national population who lives in the most densely populated zip codes are deemed “urban”, the ⅓ of our population who lives in the least densely populated zip codes are deemed “rural”, and the final ⅓ are deemed “suburban”. Under that definition only 6% of North Carolina is deemed “urban” and our unweighted sample did not meet the threshold of 5% urban voters to be reported separately.
Trump leads among rural voters, while Harris leads among suburban voters. There are small differences in the age categories with Harris leading among the youngest voters, while Trump leading among the 30-49 category, and Harris again leading among those 50-64. Elderly voters are tied.
Harris wins women, while Trump wins men. Both get almost 95% of those affiliation with their party, while Trump has a narrow lead among independents. Trump wins White voters, while Harris wins almost 80% of Black voters and has a small edge among Latino voters.
Each of the income categories is approximately tied.
The education categories show that Trump wins those with some college and Harris wins both other categories. This pattern is somewhat strange and unexpected and might be a statistical anomaly.
Political Spectrum
The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the historically light-red state of North Carolina, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 96% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 88% of his: the right and moderate right. Harris has a minimal lead among centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in North Carolina by 1.3% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 3.7%.
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