Scott leads comfortably in Florida

ActiVote’s October 28, 2024 Florida U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican incumbent Senator Rick Scott leads his Democratic challenger, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 10.4%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 17, 2024 and October 27, 2024 with a median field date of October 22. 

Mucarsel-Powell leads among urban voters, younger voters (18-29), Democrats, Black voters, and those with some college. Scott leads or ties among all other groups.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Scott and Mucarsel-Powell among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Florida, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.

Both candidates dominate among their core constituencies: 98% of left-leaning voters support Mucarsel-Powell and 95% of right-leaning voters support Scott. Centrists favor Mucarsel-Powell.

Comparisons

In our October 19 poll, Scott led by 3.8%. In our September 22 poll, Scott led by 7.8%. In the 2022 Florida Senate election, Republican incumbent Marco Rubio beat his Democratic challenger Val Demings by 16.4%. In 2018 Scott beat then-incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson by 0.1%.

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