Scott Ahead of Mucarsel-Powell in Florida

ActiVote’s September 22, 2024 Florida U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican incumbent Senator Rick Scott leads his Democratic challenger, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 7.8%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 21, 2024 and September 22, 2024 with a median field date of September 6. 

Mucarsel-Powell leads among urban voters, Democrats and Black and Latino voters. She ties Scott among younger voters (ages 18-49) and among women. Scott leads among all other groups.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Scott and Mucarsel-Powell among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Florida, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.

Both candidates dominate among their core constituencies: 94% of left-leaning voters support Mucarsel-Powell and 94% of right-leaning voters support Scott. The voters in the center are ⅔ to ⅓ leaning towards Mucarsel-Powell. 

Comparisons

In the 2022 Florida Senate election, Republican incumbent Marco Rubio beat his Democratic challenger Val Demings by 16.4%. In 2018 Scott beat then-incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson by 0.1%.

Want to be included in our next poll? Check out the app!

Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.