Schiff Comfortably Ahead of Garvey in California

ActiVote’s September 21, 2024 California U.S. Senate poll shows that the Democratic candidate Representative Adam Schiff leads his Republican opponent Steve Garvey by 25.4%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 13, 2024 and September 21, 2024 with a median field date of September 2. 

Garvey leads among those with a High School education or less, ties among White voters, and gets 89% of those affiliated with his party. Schiff leads in all other categories.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Schiff and Garvey among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the very blue state of California, there are many more left-leaning voters than the national average and far fewer right-leaning voters.

Schiff dominates among left leaning voters (95%) while Garvey gets only 88% of his core constituency on the right. The voters in the center lean towards Schiff. More importantly: far more people in  California lean left than right. Thus, not only does Schiff have stronger support among his base, than Garvey has among his, Schiff’s base is significantly larger than Garvey’s. 

Comparisons

In the 2022 California Senate election, Democratic candidate Alex Padilla beat his Republican opponent Mark Meuser by 22.2%. In our previous poll (August 12, 2024), Schiff led by 32.6%.

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