Republicans Ahead in All Texas State-Level Races

Victor Allis Company news August 11, 2024 | 0

ActiVote’s August 11, 2024 Texas state-wide polls find that the Republican candidates are ahead in all seven polled races:

The polls were in the field between July 18 and August 11 (median field date of July 30). The polls were among 400 likely presidential election voters and have an average expected error of 4.9%.

We first present an overview where we look at some similarities and differences between the 7 polls, before presenting the details for each of the 7 polls.

Overview

On average between all races, the Republican candidate is ahead of the Democratic candidate by 8.6%. The largest lead can be found in the race for Presiding Judge of the Court of Criminal Appeals, where David Schenck leads his opponent Holly Taylor by 17.4%. The smallest lead is in the race for Supreme Court Place 2, where Jimmy Blacklock leads DaSean Jones by just 1.6%.

When looking at the (summarized) crosstabs, there are various trends visible.

All leading (Republican) candidates lead among rural and suburban voters. They lead in all age groups, except the youngest voters (18-29). They lead among men, Republicans and Independents, among White voters, high income earners, and those with just highschool and those with at least college.

Some groups (urbanites, females, Latinos, low and middle income voters), are more balanced and sometimes won by the democratic candidate and sometimes by the republican candidate.

A surprising outcome is the Black vote, where David Schenck wins 65%, while Jimmy Blacklock only wins 9%. It is possible that this large variation is partly the result of the relatively small unweighted (6%) and weighted (8%) sample size of Blacks in these polls.

Another surprising outcome is the large differentiation in preference by education, with those with some college a clear outlier. Again, this may be partly explained by the relatively small unweighted (18%) sample size of those with some college.