Democrats Hold Clear Lead in Our Final Generic Congressional Ballot Poll
ActiVote’s October 30, 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot poll, our final poll of this race before the midterm elections, finds that the Democrats lead the Republicans by 7.0%. The poll was in the field between October 22 and October 30 (median field date of October 26). For this final reading we doubled our usual sample: the poll was among 2000 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 2.2%.
The Republicans lead among rural voters, men, voters 50 and older, registered Republicans, White voters and the (moderate) right. Voters with a high school education are evenly split. Democrats lead among all other groups, including suburban and urban voters, voters under 50, women, independents, Black and Latino voters, voters on low, middle and high incomes, and college-educated voters and graduate degree holders. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 2.2% for the poll as a whole.
Compared with our October 21 poll, the Democratic lead narrowed slightly, from 7.4% to 7.0%.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Democrats and Republicans among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
The left (99%) and the moderate left (97%) are virtually unanimous in their support for the Democrats, as is the right (98%) in its support for the Republicans. The moderate right is 85% Republican. Among centrists the Democrats lead by 54% to 46%.
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 | 2000 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±2.2% MoE | 100% | 100% | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 21% | 20% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 22% | 20% | 97% | 3% | |
| Center | 20% | 20% | 54% | 46% | |
| Moderate Right | 20% | 20% | 15% | 85% | |
| Right | 18% | 20% | 2% | 98% | |
| Region | rural | 40% | 35% | 44% | 56% |
| suburban | 35% | 31% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 25% | 34% | 63% | 37% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 28% | 14% | 66% | 34% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 27% | 59% | 41% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 24% | 49% | 51% | |
| 65+ | 11% | 36% | 48% | 52% | |
| Gender | F | 33% | 53% | 60% | 40% |
| M | 67% | 47% | 46% | 54% | |
| Party | D | 33% | 38% | 93% | 7% |
| R | 38% | 35% | 9% | 91% | |
| I | 25% | 24% | 55% | 45% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 82% | 71% | 49% | 51% |
| Black | 7% | 10% | 74% | 26% | |
| Latino | 8% | 12% | 54% | 46% | |
| Income | Low | 24% | 22% | 55% | 45% |
| Middle | 33% | 29% | 54% | 46% | |
| High | 43% | 49% | 53% | 47% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 25% | 50% | 50% |
| College | 68% | 60% | 54% | 46% | |
| Grad | 12% | 16% | 58% | 42% |