Democratic Lead Edges Up to Another Cycle High in Generic Congressional Ballot
ActiVote’s October 21, 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot poll finds that the Democrats lead the Republicans by 7.4%. The poll was in the field between October 15 and October 21 (median field date of October 18). The poll was among 1000 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
The Republicans lead among rural voters, men, voters 50 and older, registered Republicans, Latino voters and the (moderate) right. White voters are evenly split. Democrats lead among all other groups, including suburban and urban voters, voters under 50, women, independents, Black voters, voters on low, middle and high incomes, and voters at every level of education. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 3.1% for the poll as a whole.
Compared with our October 14 poll, the Democratic lead widened from 6.6% to 7.4%, once more the largest we have found this cycle.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Democrats and Republicans among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
The left (100%) and the moderate left (95%) are virtually unanimous in their support for the Democrats, as is the right (97%) in its support for the Republicans. The moderate right is 84% Republican. Among centrists the Democrats lead by 54% to 46%.
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 | 1000 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.1% MoE | 100% | 100% | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 20% | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 20% | 20% | 95% | 5% | |
| Center | 20% | 20% | 54% | 46% | |
| Moderate Right | 20% | 20% | 16% | 84% | |
| Right | 20% | 20% | 3% | 97% | |
| Region | rural | 40% | 35% | 44% | 56% |
| suburban | 35% | 31% | 55% | 45% | |
| urban | 25% | 34% | 63% | 37% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 28% | 14% | 66% | 34% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 27% | 59% | 41% | |
| 50-64 | 20% | 24% | 49% | 51% | |
| 65+ | 11% | 36% | 48% | 52% | |
| Gender | F | 32% | 53% | 60% | 40% |
| M | 68% | 47% | 47% | 53% | |
| Party | D | 28% | 38% | 93% | 7% |
| R | 42% | 35% | 10% | 90% | |
| I | 25% | 24% | 56% | 44% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 82% | 71% | 50% | 50% |
| Black | 7% | 10% | 79% | 21% | |
| Latino | 8% | 12% | 48% | 52% | |
| Income | Low | 23% | 22% | 54% | 46% |
| Middle | 33% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| High | 44% | 49% | 53% | 47% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 25% | 53% | 47% |
| College | 68% | 60% | 53% | 47% | |
| Grad | 12% | 16% | 57% | 43% |