Democratic Lead Climbs to New Cycle High in Generic Congressional Ballot
ActiVote’s October 14, 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot poll finds that the Democrats lead the Republicans by 6.6%. The poll was in the field between October 4 and October 14 (median field date of October 9). The poll was among 1000 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
The Republicans lead among rural voters, men, voters 50 and older, registered Republicans, Latino voters and the (moderate) right. White voters are evenly split. Democrats lead among all other groups, including suburban and urban voters, voters under 50, women, independents, Black voters, voters on low, middle and high incomes, and voters at every level of education.
Compared with our October 3 poll, the Democratic lead widened from 4.4% to 6.6%, the largest we have found this cycle and a point above the 5.6% of late September. As in September, the gain came from the right of the electorate: the Republicans hold 91% of registered Republicans, down from 93%, and 84% of the moderate right, down from 86%. The Democrats also gained among voters with no more than a high school education, who moved from a 51%-49% Republican lead to a 54%-46% Democratic one, among voters on low incomes (from 49% to 51%), among voters aged 65 and older (from 45% to 49%), among urban voters (from 58% to 63%), among Black voters (from 63% to 68%) and among graduate degree holders (from 57% to 61%). Running the other way, the Democrats lost ground among independents (from 58% to 56%). These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 3.1% for the poll as a whole.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Democrats and Republicans among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
The left (100%) and the moderate left (95%) are virtually unanimous in their support for the Democrats, as is the right (97%) in its support for the Republicans. The moderate right has eased to 84% Republican, two points lower than in early October, which is the single clearest source of the wider national lead. Among centrists the Democrats hold a 4% lead, unchanged from our last poll.
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 | 1000 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.1% MoE | 100% | 100% | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 20% | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 20% | 20% | 95% | 5% | |
| Center | 20% | 20% | 52% | 48% | |
| Moderate Right | 20% | 20% | 16% | 84% | |
| Right | 20% | 20% | 3% | 97% | |
| Region | rural | 42% | 35% | 44% | 56% |
| suburban | 35% | 31% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 23% | 34% | 63% | 37% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 26% | 14% | 61% | 39% |
| 30-49 | 40% | 27% | 59% | 41% | |
| 50-64 | 22% | 24% | 49% | 51% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 36% | 49% | 51% | |
| Gender | F | 29% | 53% | 60% | 40% |
| M | 71% | 47% | 46% | 54% | |
| Party | D | 32% | 38% | 92% | 8% |
| R | 42% | 35% | 9% | 91% | |
| I | 22% | 24% | 56% | 44% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 82% | 71% | 50% | 50% |
| Black | 7% | 10% | 68% | 32% | |
| Latino | 7% | 12% | 49% | 51% | |
| Income | Low | 23% | 22% | 51% | 49% |
| Middle | 32% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| High | 45% | 49% | 54% | 46% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 25% | 54% | 46% |
| College | 67% | 60% | 51% | 49% | |
| Grad | 12% | 16% | 61% | 39% |