Democratic Lead Eases Off Cycle High in Generic Congressional Ballot
ActiVote’s October 3, 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot poll finds that the Democrats lead the Republicans by 4.4%. The poll was in the field between September 22 and October 2 (median field date of September 27). The poll was among 1000 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
The Republicans lead among rural voters, men, voters 50 and older, registered Republicans, Latino voters, voters on low incomes, voters with no more than a high school education and the (moderate) right. White voters are evenly split. Democrats lead among all other groups, including suburban and urban voters, voters under 50, women, independents, Black voters, graduate degree holders, voters on middle and high incomes, and college graduates.
Compared with our September 22 poll, the Democratic lead narrowed from 5.6% to 4.4%, leaving it close to the 4.6% we found in early September. Last time the Democrats’ gain had come from the right of the electorate, and that is where it has gone back: the Republicans hold 93% of registered Republicans, up from 91%, and 86% of the moderate right, up from 84%. The Democrats also lost ground among the youngest voters (from 66% to 62%), among graduate degree holders (from 63% to 57%), among Latino voters (from 50% to 48%) and among voters aged 50 to 64, who moved from a 52%-48% Democratic lead to a 51%-49% Republican one. Running the other way, the Democrats gained among voters aged 30 to 49 (from 56% to 60%) and among independents (from 56% to 58%). These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 3.1% for the poll as a whole.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Democrats and Republicans among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
The left (99%) and the moderate left (96%) are virtually unanimous in their support for the Democrats, as is the right (99%) in its support for the Republicans. The moderate right has firmed up to 86% Republican, two points higher than in late September, which is the single clearest source of the narrower national lead. Among centrists the Democrats hold a 4% lead, unchanged from our last poll.
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 | 1000 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.1% MoE | 100% | 100% | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 31% | 20% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 36% | 20% | 96% | 4% | |
| Center | 15% | 20% | 52% | 48% | |
| Moderate Right | 10% | 20% | 14% | 86% | |
| Right | 8% | 20% | 1% | 99% | |
| Region | rural | 38% | 35% | 44% | 56% |
| suburban | 37% | 31% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 26% | 34% | 58% | 42% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 31% | 14% | 62% | 38% |
| 30-49 | 39% | 27% | 60% | 40% | |
| 50-64 | 19% | 24% | 49% | 51% | |
| 65+ | 11% | 36% | 45% | 55% | |
| Gender | F | 33% | 53% | 59% | 41% |
| M | 67% | 47% | 45% | 55% | |
| Party | D | 47% | 38% | 90% | 10% |
| R | 22% | 35% | 7% | 93% | |
| I | 28% | 24% | 58% | 42% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 80% | 71% | 50% | 50% |
| Black | 7% | 10% | 63% | 37% | |
| Latino | 9% | 12% | 48% | 52% | |
| Income | Low | 26% | 22% | 49% | 51% |
| Middle | 29% | 29% | 54% | 46% | |
| High | 44% | 49% | 52% | 48% | |
| Education | HS | 25% | 25% | 49% | 51% |
| College | 65% | 60% | 52% | 48% | |
| Grad | 10% | 16% | 57% | 43% |