Democratic Lead Reaches Cycle High in Generic Congressional Ballot
ActiVote’s September 22, 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot poll finds that the Democrats lead the Republicans by 5.6%. The poll was in the field between September 11 and September 21 (median field date of September 16). The poll was among 1000 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
The Republicans lead among rural voters, voters 65 and older, men, registered Republicans and the (moderate) right. The two parties are even among Latino voters, among voters on low incomes and among voters with no more than a high school education. Democrats lead among all other groups, including suburban and urban voters, voters under 65, women, independents, Black voters, graduate degree holders, and voters on middle and high incomes, and they are narrowly ahead among White voters and college graduates.
Compared with our September 11 poll, the Democratic lead widened from 4.6% to 5.6%, the largest it has been this cycle. The gain came from the right of the electorate rather than from the Democrats’ own side, where they again take 91% of registered Democrats. The Republicans slipped from 93% to 91% of registered Republicans, the Democrats went from 12% to 16% of the moderate right, and voters aged 50 to 64 moved from a 51%-49% Republican lead to a 52%-48% Democratic one. Running the other way, the Democrats lost ground among urban voters (from 60% to 58%) and voters 65 and older (from 48% to 46%). These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 3.1% for the poll as a whole.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Democrats and Republicans among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
The left (99%) and the moderate left (96%) are virtually unanimous in their support for the Democrats, as is the right (99%) in its support for the Republicans. The moderate right sits well below that at 84%, four points lower than in early September, and that is where the Democrats made their gain. Among centrists the Democrats hold a 4% lead, down from 6% in early September.
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 | 1000 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±3.1% MoE | 100% | 100% | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 31% | 20% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 34% | 20% | 96% | 4% | |
| Center | 15% | 20% | 52% | 48% | |
| Moderate Right | 10% | 20% | 16% | 84% | |
| Right | 10% | 20% | 1% | 99% | |
| Region | rural | 37% | 35% | 46% | 54% |
| suburban | 36% | 31% | 55% | 45% | |
| urban | 27% | 34% | 58% | 42% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 30% | 14% | 66% | 34% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 27% | 56% | 44% | |
| 50-64 | 20% | 24% | 52% | 48% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 36% | 46% | 54% | |
| Gender | F | 32% | 53% | 59% | 41% |
| M | 68% | 47% | 46% | 54% | |
| Party | D | 47% | 38% | 91% | 9% |
| R | 25% | 35% | 9% | 91% | |
| I | 25% | 24% | 56% | 44% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 82% | 71% | 51% | 49% |
| Black | 7% | 10% | 62% | 38% | |
| Latino | 8% | 12% | 50% | 50% | |
| Income | Low | 27% | 22% | 50% | 50% |
| Middle | 29% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| High | 44% | 49% | 53% | 47% | |
| Education | HS | 24% | 25% | 50% | 50% |
| College | 66% | 60% | 51% | 49% | |
| Grad | 10% | 16% | 63% | 37% |