Talarico Widens Lead Over Paxton in Texas Senate Race
ActiVote’s October 29, 2026 Texas U.S. Senate poll finds that Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 4.2%. The poll was in the field between October 22 and October 28 (median field date of October 25). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Talarico leads among suburban and urban voters, voters under 50, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on low incomes and college graduates. Paxton leads among rural voters, voters 50 and older, men, White voters, and voters with a high school education or a graduate degree. Voters on middle and high incomes are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Compared with our October 21 poll, Talarico’s lead widened from 2.0% to 4.2%.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Talarico and Paxton among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Talarico holds his side of the spectrum more firmly than Paxton holds his. Talarico wins the left unanimously (100%) and takes 95% of the moderate left, while Paxton takes 98% of the right and 89% of the moderate right. The center is close, with Talarico ahead by 53% to 47%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | James Talarico | Ken Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 22% | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 20% | 95% | 5% | |
| Center | 19% | 20% | 53% | 47% | |
| Moderate Right | 21% | 20% | 11% | 89% | |
| Right | 12% | 20% | 2% | 98% | |
| Region | rural | 27% | 30% | 38% | 62% |
| suburban | 30% | 27% | 51% | 49% | |
| urban | 43% | 42% | 63% | 37% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 17% | 77% | 23% |
| 30-49 | 40% | 29% | 57% | 43% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 23% | 47% | 53% | |
| 65+ | 10% | 30% | 37% | 63% | |
| Gender | F | 49% | 53% | 64% | 36% |
| M | 51% | 47% | 38% | 62% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 58% | 60% | 41% | 59% |
| Black | 10% | 8% | 90% | 10% | |
| Latino | 27% | 27% | 55% | 45% | |
| Income | Low | 23% | 21% | 61% | 39% |
| Middle | 29% | 26% | 50% | 50% | |
| High | 48% | 53% | 50% | 50% | |
| Education | HS | 23% | 22% | 45% | 55% |
| College | 65% | 64% | 56% | 44% | |
| Grad | 12% | 14% | 45% | 55% |