Talarico Holds Narrow Lead Over Paxton in Texas Senate Race
ActiVote’s October 21, 2026 Texas U.S. Senate poll finds that Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 2.0%. The poll was in the field between October 17 and October 21 (median field date of October 19). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Talarico leads among urban voters, voters under 50, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on low and middle incomes, voters with no more than a high school education and college-educated voters. Paxton leads among rural voters, voters 50 and older, men, White voters, voters on high incomes and graduate degree holders. Suburban voters are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Compared with our October 14 poll, Talarico’s lead narrowed from 3.8% to 2.0%.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Talarico and Paxton among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Talarico wins the left virtually unanimously (99%), slightly more firmly than Paxton holds the right (96%). The moderates split almost identically: 82% of the moderate left for Talarico and 81% of the moderate right for Paxton. Paxton leads among centrists by 53% to 47%, which is what keeps this race as close as it is.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | James Talarico | Ken Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 21% | 20% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 20% | 20% | 82% | 18% | |
| Center | 20% | 20% | 47% | 53% | |
| Moderate Right | 20% | 20% | 19% | 81% | |
| Right | 20% | 20% | 4% | 96% | |
| Region | rural | 32% | 30% | 39% | 61% |
| suburban | 27% | 27% | 50% | 50% | |
| urban | 41% | 42% | 60% | 40% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 29% | 17% | 70% | 30% |
| 30-49 | 34% | 29% | 54% | 46% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 23% | 48% | 52% | |
| 65+ | 11% | 30% | 40% | 60% | |
| Gender | F | 44% | 53% | 61% | 39% |
| M | 56% | 47% | 40% | 60% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 67% | 60% | 42% | 58% |
| Black | 7% | 8% | 77% | 23% | |
| Latino | 21% | 27% | 61% | 39% | |
| Income | Low | 19% | 21% | 55% | 45% |
| Middle | 31% | 26% | 51% | 49% | |
| High | 50% | 53% | 49% | 51% | |
| Education | HS | 19% | 22% | 52% | 48% |
| College | 69% | 64% | 53% | 47% | |
| Grad | 12% | 14% | 40% | 60% |