Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate Race
ActiVote’s October 14, 2026 Texas U.S. Senate poll finds that Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 3.8%. The poll was in the field between September 30 and October 14 (median field date of October 7). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Talarico leads among urban voters, voters under 30, voters aged 65 and older, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on low incomes, voters with no more than a high school education and graduate degree holders. Paxton leads among rural and suburban voters, voters aged 30 to 64, men, White voters and voters on middle incomes. Voters on high incomes and college-educated voters are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Talarico and Paxton among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Paxton leads among centrists by 57% to 43%, but Talarico holds his side of the spectrum more firmly than Paxton holds his. Talarico wins the left unanimously (100%) and takes 93% of the moderate left, while Paxton takes 96% of the right and only 83% of the moderate right. That edge on the left, above all among moderates, outweighs Paxton’s lead in the center.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | James Talarico | Ken Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 20% | 20% | 93% | 7% | |
| Center | 15% | 20% | 43% | 57% | |
| Moderate Right | 19% | 20% | 17% | 83% | |
| Right | 20% | 20% | 4% | 96% | |
| Region | rural | 27% | 30% | 41% | 59% |
| suburban | 32% | 27% | 49% | 51% | |
| urban | 41% | 42% | 62% | 38% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 26% | 17% | 66% | 34% |
| 30-49 | 36% | 29% | 49% | 51% | |
| 50-64 | 22% | 23% | 43% | 57% | |
| 65+ | 16% | 30% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 44% | 53% | 59% | 41% |
| M | 56% | 47% | 44% | 56% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 66% | 60% | 41% | 59% |
| Black | 9% | 8% | 85% | 15% | |
| Latino | 21% | 27% | 64% | 36% | |
| Income | Low | 24% | 21% | 61% | 39% |
| Middle | 35% | 26% | 49% | 51% | |
| High | 41% | 53% | 50% | 50% | |
| Education | HS | 23% | 22% | 53% | 47% |
| College | 61% | 64% | 50% | 50% | |
| Grad | 16% | 14% | 58% | 42% |