Sullivan Leads Kelly in Texas Supreme Court Place 2 Race
ActiVote’s October 19, 2026 Texas Supreme Court Place 2 poll finds that Republican James Sullivan leads Democrat Chari Kelly by 5.6%. The poll was in the field between October 1 and October 19 (median field date of October 10). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Sullivan leads among rural and suburban voters, voters aged 50 and older, men, White voters, voters on middle and high incomes and voters at every level of education. Kelly leads among urban voters, voters under 50, women, Black and Latino voters and voters on low incomes. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Sullivan and Kelly among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Sullivan holds his own side more firmly. He takes 97% of the right and 91% of the moderate right, while Kelly takes 98% of the left but 75% of the moderate left. The center is evenly split, so it is that firmer hold on his own side that puts Sullivan ahead.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | James Sullivan | Chari Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 42% | 20% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 23% | 20% | 25% | 75% | |
| Center | 10% | 20% | 50% | 50% | |
| Moderate Right | 11% | 20% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 14% | 20% | 97% | 3% | |
| Region | rural | 29% | 30% | 66% | 34% |
| suburban | 29% | 27% | 51% | 49% | |
| urban | 42% | 42% | 44% | 56% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 28% | 17% | 39% | 61% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 29% | 48% | 52% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 23% | 56% | 44% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 30% | 63% | 37% | |
| Gender | F | 43% | 53% | 44% | 56% |
| M | 57% | 47% | 63% | 37% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 64% | 60% | 59% | 41% |
| Black | 10% | 8% | 36% | 64% | |
| Latino | 23% | 27% | 45% | 55% | |
| Income | Low | 21% | 21% | 46% | 54% |
| Middle | 31% | 26% | 52% | 48% | |
| High | 47% | 53% | 56% | 44% | |
| Education | HS | 17% | 22% | 54% | 46% |
| College | 72% | 64% | 53% | 47% | |
| Grad | 11% | 14% | 52% | 48% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Sullivan | Kelly | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19, 2026 | 52.8% | 47.2% | R+5.6% | 400 | ±4.9% |