French Leads Rosenthal in Texas Railroad Commissioner Race
ActiVote’s October 17, 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner poll finds that Republican Bo French leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal by 4.2%. The poll was in the field between September 25 and October 17 (median field date of October 6). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
French leads among rural and suburban voters, voters aged 30 and older, men, White voters, voters on high incomes, and voters with a high school or college education. Rosenthal leads among urban voters, voters under 30, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on low incomes and graduate degree holders. Voters on middle incomes are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for French and Rosenthal among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Both candidates hold their own side about equally firmly. Rosenthal wins the left unanimously (100%) and takes 88% of the moderate left, while French takes 91% of the right and 95% of the moderate right. The race is decided in the center, where French leads by 62% to 38%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Bo French | Jon Rosenthal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 49% | 20% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 24% | 20% | 12% | 88% | |
| Center | 7% | 20% | 62% | 38% | |
| Moderate Right | 8% | 20% | 95% | 5% | |
| Right | 11% | 20% | 91% | 9% | |
| Region | rural | 25% | 30% | 64% | 36% |
| suburban | 28% | 27% | 56% | 44% | |
| urban | 47% | 42% | 41% | 59% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 32% | 17% | 42% | 58% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 29% | 53% | 47% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 23% | 58% | 42% | |
| 65+ | 10% | 30% | 52% | 48% | |
| Gender | F | 47% | 53% | 45% | 55% |
| M | 53% | 47% | 61% | 39% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 64% | 60% | 62% | 38% |
| Black | 10% | 8% | 48% | 52% | |
| Latino | 23% | 27% | 37% | 63% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 21% | 40% | 60% |
| Middle | 33% | 26% | 50% | 50% | |
| High | 46% | 53% | 58% | 42% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 22% | 52% | 48% |
| College | 68% | 64% | 57% | 43% | |
| Grad | 12% | 14% | 31% | 69% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | French | Rosenthal | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17, 2026 | 52.1% | 47.9% | R+4.2% | 400 | ±4.9% |