Buckingham Leads Flores in Texas Land Commissioner Race
ActiVote’s October 17, 2026 Texas Land Commissioner poll finds that Republican Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham leads her Democratic challenger Benjamin Flores by 3.8%. The poll was in the field between September 25 and October 17 (median field date of October 6). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Buckingham leads among rural voters, voters aged 30 to 64, men, White voters, voters on high incomes, college-educated voters and graduate degree holders. Flores leads among urban voters, voters under 30, voters aged 65 and older, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on low incomes and voters with no more than a high school education. Suburban voters and voters on middle incomes are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Buckingham and Flores among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Both candidates hold their own side about equally firmly. Flores wins the left virtually unanimously (98%) and takes 84% of the moderate left, while Buckingham takes 92% of the right and 88% of the moderate right. The race is decided in the center, where Buckingham leads by 64% to 36%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Dawn Buckingham | Benjamin Flores |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 48% | 20% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 20% | 16% | 84% | |
| Center | 8% | 20% | 64% | 36% | |
| Moderate Right | 9% | 20% | 88% | 12% | |
| Right | 11% | 20% | 92% | 8% | |
| Region | rural | 25% | 30% | 63% | 37% |
| suburban | 28% | 27% | 50% | 50% | |
| urban | 47% | 42% | 45% | 55% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 33% | 17% | 43% | 57% |
| 30-49 | 36% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| 50-64 | 18% | 23% | 59% | 41% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 30% | 49% | 51% | |
| Gender | F | 46% | 53% | 42% | 58% |
| M | 54% | 47% | 64% | 36% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 65% | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Black | 8% | 8% | 34% | 66% | |
| Latino | 24% | 27% | 45% | 55% | |
| Income | Low | 23% | 21% | 47% | 53% |
| Middle | 33% | 26% | 50% | 50% | |
| High | 44% | 53% | 55% | 45% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 22% | 43% | 57% |
| College | 68% | 64% | 55% | 45% | |
| Grad | 12% | 14% | 51% | 49% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Buckingham | Flores | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17, 2026 | 51.9% | 48.1% | R+3.8% | 400 | ±4.9% |