Abbott Keeps Lead Over Hinojosa in Texas Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 29, 2026 Texas Governor poll finds that Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads his Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 4.2%. The poll was in the field between October 23 and October 29 (median field date of October 26). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Abbott leads among rural and suburban voters, voters 50 and older, men, White voters, voters on middle and high incomes, and voters with a high school education or a graduate degree. Hinojosa leads among urban voters, voters under 50, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on low incomes and college graduates. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Compared with our October 21 poll, Abbott’s lead narrowed from 5.0% to 4.2%.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Abbott and Hinojosa among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Both candidates hold their own side firmly: Hinojosa wins the left unanimously (100%) and takes 92% of the moderate left, while Abbott wins the right unanimously (100%) and takes 95% of the moderate right. The difference is made in the center, which Abbott wins by 57% to 43%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Greg Abbott | Gina Hinojosa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 21% | 20% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 20% | 8% | 92% | |
| Center | 17% | 20% | 57% | 43% | |
| Moderate Right | 22% | 20% | 95% | 5% | |
| Right | 11% | 20% | 100% | 0% | |
| Region | rural | 28% | 30% | 64% | 36% |
| suburban | 28% | 27% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 44% | 42% | 42% | 58% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 26% | 17% | 25% | 75% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 29% | 45% | 55% | |
| 50-64 | 22% | 23% | 64% | 36% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 30% | 65% | 35% | |
| Gender | F | 48% | 53% | 41% | 59% |
| M | 52% | 47% | 65% | 35% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 58% | 60% | 65% | 35% |
| Black | 10% | 8% | 9% | 91% | |
| Latino | 28% | 27% | 48% | 52% | |
| Income | Low | 26% | 21% | 43% | 57% |
| Middle | 28% | 26% | 56% | 44% | |
| High | 46% | 53% | 54% | 46% | |
| Education | HS | 28% | 22% | 56% | 44% |
| College | 62% | 64% | 48% | 52% | |
| Grad | 10% | 14% | 67% | 33% |