Abbott Extends Lead Over Hinojosa in Texas Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 21, 2026 Texas Governor poll finds that Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads his Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 5.0%. The poll was in the field between October 17 and October 21 (median field date of October 19). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Abbott leads among rural and suburban voters, voters 50 and older, men, White voters, voters on middle and high incomes and voters at every level of education. Hinojosa leads among urban voters, voters under 30, women, Latino voters and voters on low incomes. Voters aged 30 to 49 are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Compared with our October 14 poll, Abbott’s lead widened from 1.8% to 5.0%.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Abbott and Hinojosa among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Hinojosa wins the left virtually unanimously (99%), while Abbott takes 95% of the right. Among moderates Abbott holds his side more firmly: he takes 83% of the moderate right, while Hinojosa takes 72% of the moderate left. Abbott also leads among centrists, by 58% to 42%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Greg Abbott | Gina Hinojosa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 20% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 20% | 20% | 28% | 72% | |
| Center | 16% | 20% | 58% | 42% | |
| Moderate Right | 20% | 20% | 83% | 17% | |
| Right | 20% | 20% | 95% | 5% | |
| Region | rural | 31% | 30% | 63% | 37% |
| suburban | 29% | 27% | 51% | 49% | |
| urban | 40% | 42% | 46% | 54% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 28% | 17% | 35% | 65% |
| 30-49 | 40% | 29% | 50% | 50% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 23% | 59% | 41% | |
| 65+ | 11% | 30% | 60% | 40% | |
| Gender | F | 44% | 53% | 42% | 58% |
| M | 56% | 47% | 65% | 35% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 67% | 60% | 65% | 35% |
| Latino | 24% | 27% | 44% | 56% | |
| Income | Low | 19% | 21% | 42% | 58% |
| Middle | 35% | 26% | 53% | 47% | |
| High | 46% | 53% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 16% | 22% | 57% | 43% |
| College | 71% | 64% | 51% | 49% | |
| Grad | 13% | 14% | 53% | 47% |