Abbott Narrowly Ahead in Texas Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 14, 2026 Texas Governor poll finds that Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads his Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 1.8%. The poll was in the field between September 30 and October 14 (median field date of October 7). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Abbott leads among rural and suburban voters, voters aged 50 to 64, men, White voters, voters on high incomes and college-educated voters. Hinojosa leads among urban voters, voters under 30, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on low incomes, voters with no more than a high school education and graduate degree holders. Voters aged 30 to 49, voters aged 65 and older and voters on middle incomes are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Abbott and Hinojosa among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Hinojosa wins the left virtually unanimously (99%) and takes 85% of the moderate left, while Abbott takes 96% of the right and 86% of the moderate right. The race is decided in the center, where Abbott leads by 61% to 39%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Greg Abbott | Gina Hinojosa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 30% | 20% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 20% | 20% | 15% | 85% | |
| Center | 13% | 20% | 61% | 39% | |
| Moderate Right | 17% | 20% | 86% | 14% | |
| Right | 20% | 20% | 96% | 4% | |
| Region | rural | 27% | 30% | 64% | 36% |
| suburban | 31% | 27% | 53% | 47% | |
| urban | 42% | 42% | 41% | 59% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 26% | 17% | 38% | 62% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 29% | 50% | 50% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 23% | 62% | 38% | |
| 65+ | 16% | 30% | 50% | 50% | |
| Gender | F | 45% | 53% | 43% | 57% |
| M | 55% | 47% | 60% | 40% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 67% | 60% | 62% | 38% |
| Black | 8% | 8% | 20% | 80% | |
| Latino | 21% | 27% | 38% | 62% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 21% | 41% | 59% |
| Middle | 36% | 26% | 50% | 50% | |
| High | 42% | 53% | 55% | 45% | |
| Education | HS | 22% | 22% | 48% | 52% |
| College | 64% | 64% | 53% | 47% | |
| Grad | 14% | 14% | 45% | 55% |