Middleton Leads Johnson in Texas Attorney General Race
ActiVote’s October 17, 2026 Texas Attorney General poll finds that Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by 5.8%. The poll was in the field between September 27 and October 17 (median field date of October 7). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Middleton leads among rural and suburban voters, voters aged 30 and older, men, White voters, voters on middle and high incomes and college-educated voters. Johnson leads among urban voters, voters under 30, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on low incomes, voters with no more than a high school education and graduate degree holders. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Middleton and Johnson among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Both candidates hold their own side about equally firmly. Johnson wins the left unanimously (100%) and takes 81% of the moderate left, while Middleton takes 90% of the right and 96% of the moderate right. The race is decided in the center, where Middleton leads by 59% to 41%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Mayes Middleton | Nathan Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 46% | 20% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 20% | 19% | 81% | |
| Center | 9% | 20% | 59% | 41% | |
| Moderate Right | 9% | 20% | 96% | 4% | |
| Right | 12% | 20% | 90% | 10% | |
| Region | rural | 23% | 30% | 60% | 40% |
| suburban | 31% | 27% | 52% | 48% | |
| urban | 46% | 42% | 48% | 52% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 31% | 17% | 45% | 55% |
| 30-49 | 39% | 29% | 53% | 47% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 23% | 57% | 43% | |
| 65+ | 10% | 30% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 47% | 53% | 43% | 57% |
| M | 53% | 47% | 64% | 36% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 63% | 60% | 64% | 36% |
| Black | 10% | 8% | 41% | 59% | |
| Latino | 23% | 27% | 38% | 62% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 21% | 43% | 57% |
| Middle | 33% | 26% | 54% | 46% | |
| High | 45% | 53% | 56% | 44% | |
| Education | HS | 19% | 22% | 45% | 55% |
| College | 68% | 64% | 57% | 43% | |
| Grad | 12% | 14% | 47% | 53% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Middleton | Johnson | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17, 2026 | 52.9% | 47.1% | R+5.8% | 400 | ±4.9% |