Sheets Narrowly Ahead in Texas Agriculture Commissioner Race
ActiVote’s October 17, 2026 Texas Agriculture Commissioner poll finds that Republican Nate Sheets leads Democrat Clayton Tucker by 0.6%. The poll was in the field between September 25 and October 17 (median field date of October 6). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Sheets leads among rural and suburban voters, voters aged 30 and older, men, White voters, voters on high incomes, college-educated voters and graduate degree holders. Tucker leads among urban voters, voters under 30, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on low incomes and voters with no more than a high school education. Voters on middle incomes are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Texas does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Sheets and Tucker among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Texas electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Both candidates hold their own side about equally firmly. Tucker takes 96% of the left and 85% of the moderate left, while Sheets takes 93% of the right and 87% of the moderate right. The race is decided in the center, where Sheets leads by 54% to 46%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Nate Sheets | Clayton Tucker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 49% | 20% | 4% | 96% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 20% | 15% | 85% | |
| Center | 9% | 20% | 54% | 46% | |
| Moderate Right | 8% | 20% | 87% | 13% | |
| Right | 10% | 20% | 93% | 7% | |
| Region | rural | 23% | 30% | 60% | 40% |
| suburban | 30% | 27% | 53% | 47% | |
| urban | 47% | 42% | 41% | 59% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 32% | 17% | 37% | 63% |
| 30-49 | 39% | 29% | 52% | 48% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 23% | 56% | 44% | |
| 65+ | 9% | 30% | 51% | 49% | |
| Gender | F | 46% | 53% | 42% | 58% |
| M | 54% | 47% | 60% | 40% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 64% | 60% | 62% | 38% |
| Black | 8% | 8% | 14% | 86% | |
| Latino | 23% | 27% | 39% | 61% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 21% | 47% | 53% |
| Middle | 32% | 26% | 50% | 50% | |
| High | 46% | 53% | 52% | 48% | |
| Education | HS | 18% | 22% | 41% | 59% |
| College | 69% | 64% | 52% | 48% | |
| Grad | 13% | 14% | 55% | 45% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Sheets | Tucker | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17, 2026 | 50.3% | 49.7% | R+0.6% | 400 | ±4.9% |