Shapiro Holds Wide Lead in Pennsylvania Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 21, 2026 Pennsylvania Governor poll finds that Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro leads his Republican challenger Stacy Garrity by 23.0%. The poll was in the field between October 1 and October 21 (median field date of October 11). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Shapiro leads among almost every group: rural, suburban and urban voters, voters of every age, women and men, registered Democrats and independents, White and Black voters, voters at every income level and voters at every level of education. Garrity leads among registered Republicans and Latino voters. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Shapiro and Garrity among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Pennsylvania electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Shapiro holds his side of the spectrum far more firmly than Garrity holds hers. He takes 98% of the left and 97% of the moderate left, while Garrity takes 86% of the right and 76% of the moderate right. Shapiro also wins the center by 76% to 24%, which together accounts for his wide lead.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Josh Shapiro | Stacy Garrity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 31% | 20% | 98% | 2% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 20% | 97% | 3% | |
| Center | 16% | 20% | 76% | 24% | |
| Moderate Right | 9% | 20% | 24% | 76% | |
| Right | 15% | 20% | 14% | 86% | |
| Region | rural | 33% | 32% | 51% | 49% |
| suburban | 40% | 40% | 62% | 38% | |
| urban | 27% | 28% | 72% | 28% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 36% | 14% | 77% | 23% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 27% | 62% | 38% | |
| 50-64 | 16% | 23% | 53% | 47% | |
| 65+ | 10% | 36% | 60% | 40% | |
| Gender | F | 34% | 53% | 68% | 32% |
| M | 66% | 47% | 54% | 46% | |
| Party | D | 58% | 45% | 98% | 2% |
| R | 24% | 44% | 19% | 81% | |
| I | 17% | 11% | 82% | 18% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 81% | 80% | 57% | 43% |
| Black | 5% | 9% | 100% | 0% | |
| Latino | 10% | 5% | 47% | 53% | |
| Income | Low | 29% | 25% | 59% | 41% |
| Middle | 35% | 32% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 36% | 44% | 66% | 34% | |
| Education | HS | 28% | 27% | 55% | 45% |
| College | 60% | 56% | 63% | 37% | |
| Grad | 12% | 16% | 69% | 31% |