Hochul Leads Blakeman in New York Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 23, 2026 New York Governor poll finds that Democrat Kathy Hochul leads Republican Bruce Blakeman by 18.0%. The poll was in the field between October 1 and October 23 (median field date of October 12). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Hochul leads among suburban and urban voters, voters aged 18 to 49 and 65 and older, women and men, Black and Latino voters, and at every level of income and education. Blakeman narrowly leads among rural voters and White voters, 51% to 49% in both, and voters aged 50 to 64 are tied at 50% each. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole.
Both candidates hold their own party: Hochul takes 88% of Democrats and Blakeman 92% of Republicans. Independents favor Hochul by 58% to 42%, and Democrats make up a much larger share of the likely electorate in this poll than Republicans (49% against 27%).
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Hochul and Blakeman among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the New York electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Hochul holds her side of the spectrum more firmly than Blakeman holds his. Hochul wins the left unanimously (100%) and takes 92% of the moderate left, while Blakeman takes 92% of the right and 73% of the moderate right. On top of that, Hochul wins the center by 66% to 34%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Kathy Hochul | Bruce Blakeman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 29% | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 30% | 20% | 92% | 8% | |
| Center | 16% | 20% | 66% | 34% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 20% | 27% | 73% | |
| Right | 13% | 20% | 8% | 92% | |
| Region | rural | 27% | 22% | 49% | 51% |
| suburban | 24% | 21% | 55% | 45% | |
| urban | 49% | 57% | 64% | 36% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 39% | 13% | 59% | 41% |
| 30-49 | 30% | 27% | 61% | 39% | |
| 50-64 | 18% | 23% | 50% | 50% | |
| 65+ | 13% | 36% | 63% | 37% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 54% | 65% | 35% |
| M | 60% | 46% | 52% | 48% | |
| Party | D | 57% | 49% | 88% | 12% |
| R | 21% | 27% | 8% | 92% | |
| I | 18% | 19% | 58% | 42% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 71% | 66% | 49% | 51% |
| Black | 10% | 12% | 88% | 12% | |
| Latino | 15% | 13% | 70% | 30% | |
| Income | Low | 26% | 20% | 57% | 43% |
| Middle | 30% | 27% | 57% | 43% | |
| High | 44% | 52% | 61% | 39% | |
| Education | HS | 24% | 24% | 55% | 45% |
| College | 66% | 58% | 61% | 39% | |
| Grad | 11% | 18% | 59% | 41% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Hochul | Blakeman | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23, 2026 | 59.0% | 41.0% | D+18.0% | 400 | ±4.9% |