Cooper Leads Whatley in North Carolina Senate Race
ActiVote’s October 20, 2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate poll finds that Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 13.8%. The poll was in the field between October 8 and October 20 (median field date of October 14). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Cooper leads among rural, suburban and urban voters, voters under 65, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on every income level, college-educated voters and graduate degree holders. Whatley leads among voters aged 65 and older, men and White voters. Voters with no more than a high school education are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole.
Both candidates hold their own party: Cooper takes 99% of Democrats and Whatley 94% of Republicans. Democrats and Republicans make up about equal shares of the likely electorate in this poll (31% against 32%), and independents favor Cooper by 65% to 35%, which is what puts him ahead.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Cooper and Whatley among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the North Carolina electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Cooper holds his own side more firmly. He takes 99% of the left and 89% of the moderate left, while Whatley takes 89% of the right and 73% of the moderate right. The race is decided in the center, where Cooper leads by 54% to 46%.
Want to be included in our next poll? Check out the app!
Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our FAQs, polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, and accuracy analysis.
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 37% | 20% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 32% | 20% | 89% | 11% | |
| Center | 11% | 20% | 54% | 46% | |
| Moderate Right | 9% | 20% | 27% | 73% | |
| Right | 12% | 20% | 11% | 89% | |
| Region | rural | 41% | 47% | 51% | 49% |
| suburban | 49% | 44% | 60% | 40% | |
| urban | 10% | 9% | 73% | 27% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 31% | 17% | 74% | 26% |
| 30-49 | 36% | 26% | 73% | 27% | |
| 50-64 | 20% | 24% | 60% | 40% | |
| 65+ | 13% | 33% | 33% | 67% | |
| Gender | F | 44% | 54% | 67% | 33% |
| M | 56% | 46% | 45% | 55% | |
| Party | D | 41% | 31% | 99% | 1% |
| R | 16% | 32% | 6% | 94% | |
| I | 42% | 36% | 65% | 35% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 63% | 68% | 41% | 59% |
| Black | 26% | 21% | 92% | 8% | |
| Latino | 9% | 6% | 79% | 21% | |
| Income | Low | 33% | 27% | 61% | 39% |
| Middle | 32% | 29% | 59% | 41% | |
| High | 35% | 44% | 53% | 47% | |
| Education | HS | 25% | 27% | 50% | 50% |
| College | 65% | 58% | 59% | 41% | |
| Grad | 10% | 14% | 63% | 37% |