Stratton Lead Over Tracy Narrows in Illinois Senate Race
ActiVote’s October 30, 2026 Illinois U.S. Senate poll finds that Democrat Juliana Stratton leads Republican Don Tracy by 11.2%. The poll was in the field between October 21 and October 30 (median field date of October 25). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Stratton leads among suburban and urban voters, voters under 65, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on middle and high incomes, and voters with a high school or college education. Tracy leads among rural voters, voters aged 65 and older, men, voters on low incomes and graduate degree holders. White voters are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Illinois does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Compared with our October 20 poll, Stratton’s lead narrowed from 17.0% to 11.2%.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Stratton and Tracy among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Illinois electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Stratton holds her own side more firmly. She takes 98% of the left and 97% of the moderate left, while Tracy takes all of the right (100%) but only 79% of the moderate right. Stratton also wins the center, 60% to 40%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 20% | 98% | 2% |
| Moderate Left | 41% | 20% | 97% | 3% | |
| Center | 14% | 20% | 60% | 40% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 20% | 21% | 79% | |
| Right | 7% | 20% | 0% | 100% | |
| Region | rural | 25% | 25% | 34% | 66% |
| suburban | 30% | 30% | 60% | 40% | |
| urban | 46% | 45% | 65% | 35% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 36% | 13% | 80% | 20% |
| 30-49 | 34% | 25% | 64% | 36% | |
| 50-64 | 21% | 22% | 57% | 43% | |
| 65+ | 8% | 40% | 41% | 59% | |
| Gender | F | 48% | 53% | 65% | 35% |
| M | 52% | 47% | 45% | 55% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 73% | 79% | 50% | 50% |
| Black | 8% | 10% | 88% | 12% | |
| Latino | 13% | 6% | 69% | 31% | |
| Income | Low | 25% | 23% | 47% | 53% |
| Middle | 36% | 30% | 56% | 44% | |
| High | 39% | 47% | 60% | 40% | |
| Education | HS | 16% | 23% | 72% | 28% |
| College | 73% | 60% | 55% | 45% | |
| Grad | 11% | 17% | 36% | 64% |