Stratton Leads Tracy in Illinois Senate Race
ActiVote’s October 20, 2026 Illinois U.S. Senate poll finds that Democrat Juliana Stratton leads Republican Don Tracy by 17.0%. The poll was in the field between September 26 and October 20 (median field date of October 8). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Stratton leads among suburban and urban voters, voters under 30 and aged 50 and older, women, White, Black and Latino voters, voters on middle and high incomes, and at every level of education. Tracy leads among rural voters, voters aged 30 to 49, men and voters on low incomes. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole. Illinois does not register voters by party, so we do not report a breakdown by party affiliation.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Stratton and Tracy among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Illinois electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Stratton holds her own side more firmly. She takes 99% of the left and 93% of the moderate left, while Tracy takes 88% of the right and 79% of the moderate right. The race is decided in the center, where Stratton leads by 67% to 33%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 42% | 20% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 20% | 93% | 7% | |
| Center | 12% | 20% | 67% | 33% | |
| Moderate Right | 8% | 20% | 21% | 79% | |
| Right | 10% | 20% | 12% | 88% | |
| Region | rural | 31% | 25% | 36% | 64% |
| suburban | 29% | 30% | 57% | 43% | |
| urban | 40% | 45% | 72% | 28% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 36% | 13% | 78% | 22% |
| 30-49 | 36% | 25% | 48% | 52% | |
| 50-64 | 17% | 22% | 61% | 39% | |
| 65+ | 11% | 40% | 57% | 43% | |
| Gender | F | 44% | 53% | 75% | 25% |
| M | 56% | 47% | 40% | 60% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 63% | 79% | 51% | 49% |
| Black | 11% | 10% | 88% | 12% | |
| Latino | 18% | 6% | 83% | 17% | |
| Income | Low | 26% | 23% | 47% | 53% |
| Middle | 31% | 30% | 70% | 30% | |
| High | 43% | 47% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 23% | 65% | 35% |
| College | 66% | 60% | 55% | 45% | |
| Grad | 13% | 17% | 61% | 39% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Stratton | Tracy | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 20, 2026 | 58.5% | 41.5% | D+17.0% | 400 | ±4.9% |