Moody Holds Lead Over Nixon in Florida Senate Race
ActiVote’s October 27, 2026 Florida U.S. Senate poll finds that Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 6.0%. The poll was in the field between October 17 and October 27 (median field date of October 22). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Moody leads among rural and suburban voters, voters aged 50 and older, men, White voters, voters on middle and high incomes, and voters with no more than a high school education or a graduate degree. Nixon leads among urban voters, voters under 50, women, Black and Latino voters, voters on low incomes and voters with a college degree. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole.
Both candidates hold their own party: Moody takes 97% of Republicans and Nixon 94% of Democrats. Independents favor Nixon by 70% to 30%, but Republicans make up a larger share of the likely electorate in this poll than Democrats (45% against 32%), and that is what puts Moody ahead.
Compared with our October 15 poll, Moody’s lead is little changed, at 6.0% against 6.2%.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Moody and Nixon among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Florida electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Moody holds her side of the spectrum more firmly than Nixon holds hers. Nixon takes 99% of the left and Moody 92% of the right, but Moody takes 89% of the moderate right against Nixon’s 77% of the moderate left. On top of that, Moody wins the center by 61% to 39%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Ashley Moody | Angie Nixon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 23% | 20% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 22% | 20% | 23% | 77% | |
| Center | 18% | 20% | 61% | 39% | |
| Moderate Right | 18% | 20% | 89% | 11% | |
| Right | 19% | 20% | 92% | 8% | |
| Region | rural | 21% | 19% | 69% | 31% |
| suburban | 34% | 39% | 59% | 41% | |
| urban | 44% | 42% | 40% | 60% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 12% | 42% | 58% |
| 30-49 | 30% | 24% | 44% | 56% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 24% | 52% | 48% | |
| 65+ | 18% | 40% | 62% | 38% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 54% | 47% | 53% |
| M | 60% | 46% | 59% | 41% | |
| Party | D | 37% | 32% | 6% | 94% |
| R | 41% | 45% | 97% | 3% | |
| I | 20% | 22% | 30% | 70% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 54% | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Black | 15% | 14% | 20% | 80% | |
| Latino | 27% | 22% | 47% | 53% | |
| Income | Low | 37% | 25% | 46% | 54% |
| Middle | 26% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| High | 36% | 46% | 55% | 45% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 24% | 60% | 40% |
| College | 71% | 62% | 46% | 54% | |
| Grad | 9% | 14% | 72% | 28% |