Moody Leads Nixon in Florida Senate Race
ActiVote’s October 15, 2026 Florida U.S. Senate poll finds that Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 6.2%. The poll was in the field between September 27 and October 15 (median field date of October 6). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Moody leads among rural and suburban voters, voters aged 50 and older, men, White voters, voters on middle and high incomes, and voters with no more than a high school education or a college degree. Nixon leads among urban voters, voters under 50, women, Black and Latino voters and graduate degree holders. Voters on low incomes are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole.
Both candidates hold their own party: Moody takes 95% of Republicans and Nixon 93% of Democrats. Independents favor Nixon by 67% to 33%, but Republicans make up a larger share of the likely electorate in this poll than Democrats (45% against 32%), and that is what puts Moody ahead.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Moody and Nixon among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Florida electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
The two candidates hold their own sides of the spectrum about equally. Nixon takes 99% of the left and Moody 91% of the right, while Moody takes 88% of the moderate right against Nixon’s 78% of the moderate left. The race is decided in the center, where Moody leads by 63% to 37%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Ashley Moody | Angie Nixon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 33% | 20% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 32% | 20% | 22% | 78% | |
| Center | 13% | 20% | 63% | 37% | |
| Moderate Right | 11% | 20% | 88% | 12% | |
| Right | 12% | 20% | 91% | 9% | |
| Region | rural | 17% | 19% | 67% | 33% |
| suburban | 38% | 39% | 55% | 45% | |
| urban | 45% | 42% | 45% | 55% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 29% | 12% | 43% | 57% |
| 30-49 | 29% | 24% | 43% | 57% | |
| 50-64 | 22% | 24% | 58% | 42% | |
| 65+ | 20% | 40% | 59% | 41% | |
| Gender | F | 41% | 54% | 48% | 52% |
| M | 59% | 46% | 59% | 41% | |
| Party | D | 52% | 32% | 7% | 93% |
| R | 28% | 45% | 95% | 5% | |
| I | 19% | 22% | 33% | 67% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 54% | 60% | 63% | 37% |
| Black | 18% | 14% | 19% | 81% | |
| Latino | 25% | 22% | 42% | 58% | |
| Income | Low | 32% | 25% | 50% | 50% |
| Middle | 31% | 29% | 57% | 43% | |
| High | 37% | 46% | 52% | 48% | |
| Education | HS | 17% | 24% | 58% | 42% |
| College | 74% | 62% | 53% | 47% | |
| Grad | 9% | 14% | 46% | 54% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Moody | Nixon | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15, 2026 | 53.1% | 46.9% | R+6.2% | 400 | ±4.9% |