Donalds Holds Lead Over Jolly in Florida Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 31, 2026 Florida Governor poll finds that Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 4.6%. The poll was in the field between October 20 and October 31 (median field date of October 26). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Compared with our October 19 poll, Donalds’ lead is little changed, at 4.6% against 3.4%.
Donalds leads among rural and suburban voters, voters aged 50 and older, men, White voters, voters on high incomes, voters with no more than a high school education and graduate degree holders, and he narrowly leads among voters on middle incomes, 51% to 49%. Jolly leads among urban voters, voters under 50, women, Black voters and college-educated voters, and he narrowly leads among voters on low incomes, 51% to 49%. Latino voters are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole.
Both candidates hold their own party: Donalds takes 91% of Republicans and Jolly 89% of Democrats. Independents favor Jolly by 67% to 33%, but Republicans make up a larger share of the likely electorate in this poll than Democrats (45% against 32%), and that is what puts Donalds ahead.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Donalds and Jolly among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Florida electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Each candidate takes all of their own wing (100%). Donalds holds the moderate right a little more firmly, with 93% against Jolly’s 89% of the moderate left, and he wins the center, by 57% to 43%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Byron Donalds | David Jolly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 20% | 20% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 20% | 11% | 89% | |
| Center | 19% | 20% | 57% | 43% | |
| Moderate Right | 22% | 20% | 93% | 7% | |
| Right | 10% | 20% | 100% | 0% | |
| Region | rural | 21% | 19% | 63% | 37% |
| suburban | 34% | 39% | 55% | 45% | |
| urban | 45% | 42% | 45% | 55% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 28% | 12% | 45% | 55% |
| 30-49 | 30% | 24% | 44% | 56% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 24% | 54% | 46% | |
| 65+ | 16% | 40% | 59% | 41% | |
| Gender | F | 39% | 54% | 46% | 54% |
| M | 61% | 46% | 60% | 40% | |
| Party | D | 36% | 32% | 11% | 89% |
| R | 40% | 45% | 91% | 9% | |
| I | 22% | 22% | 33% | 67% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 53% | 60% | 57% | 43% |
| Black | 18% | 14% | 30% | 70% | |
| Latino | 27% | 22% | 50% | 50% | |
| Income | Low | 38% | 25% | 49% | 51% |
| Middle | 26% | 29% | 51% | 49% | |
| High | 36% | 46% | 55% | 45% | |
| Education | HS | 24% | 24% | 56% | 44% |
| College | 65% | 62% | 48% | 52% | |
| Grad | 10% | 14% | 66% | 34% |