Donalds Leads Jolly in Florida Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 19, 2026 Florida Governor poll finds that Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 3.4%. The poll was in the field between October 1 and October 19 (median field date of October 10). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Donalds leads among rural and suburban voters, voters aged 50 and older, men, White voters, voters on high incomes, college-educated voters and graduate degree holders. Jolly leads among urban voters, voters under 50, women, Black and Latino voters and voters on low incomes. Voters on middle incomes and voters with no more than a high school education are evenly split. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole.
Both candidates hold their own party: Donalds takes 90% of Republicans and Jolly 85% of Democrats. Independents favor Jolly by 72% to 28%, but Republicans make up a larger share of the likely electorate in this poll than Democrats (45% against 32%), and that is what puts Donalds ahead.
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Donalds and Jolly among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the Florida electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Jolly takes 98% of the left against Donalds’ 89% of the right, while Donalds takes 86% of the moderate right against Jolly’s 74% of the moderate left. The race is decided in the center, where Donalds leads by 53% to 47%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Byron Donalds | David Jolly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 30% | 20% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 30% | 20% | 26% | 74% | |
| Center | 13% | 20% | 53% | 47% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 20% | 86% | 14% | |
| Right | 15% | 20% | 89% | 11% | |
| Region | rural | 17% | 19% | 61% | 39% |
| suburban | 36% | 39% | 53% | 47% | |
| urban | 46% | 42% | 46% | 54% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 21% | 12% | 28% | 72% |
| 30-49 | 31% | 24% | 44% | 56% | |
| 50-64 | 24% | 24% | 55% | 45% | |
| 65+ | 23% | 40% | 61% | 39% | |
| Gender | F | 38% | 54% | 45% | 55% |
| M | 62% | 46% | 59% | 41% | |
| Party | D | 47% | 32% | 15% | 85% |
| R | 33% | 45% | 90% | 10% | |
| I | 19% | 22% | 28% | 72% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 56% | 60% | 55% | 45% |
| Black | 18% | 14% | 39% | 61% | |
| Latino | 24% | 22% | 46% | 54% | |
| Income | Low | 32% | 25% | 46% | 54% |
| Middle | 27% | 29% | 50% | 50% | |
| High | 41% | 46% | 56% | 44% | |
| Education | HS | 17% | 24% | 50% | 50% |
| College | 71% | 62% | 51% | 49% | |
| Grad | 11% | 14% | 56% | 44% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Donalds | Jolly | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19, 2026 | 51.7% | 48.3% | R+3.4% | 400 | ±4.9% |