Becerra Keeps Wide Lead Over Hilton in California Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 31, 2026 California Governor poll finds that Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton by 26.4%. The poll was in the field between October 17 and October 31 (median field date of October 24). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Compared with our October 16 poll, Becerra’s lead is little changed, at 26.4% against 25.6%.
Becerra leads in almost every group: among suburban and urban voters, voters of every age, women and men, White and Latino voters, and at every level of income and education. The one group Hilton leads is rural voters, by 56% to 44%. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole.
Both candidates hold their own party: Becerra takes 96% of Democrats and Hilton 95% of Republicans. Independents favor Becerra by 71% to 29%, and Democrats make up a much larger share of the likely electorate in this poll than Republicans (48% against 28%).
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Becerra and Hilton among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the California electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Becerra holds his own side more firmly. He takes all of the left (100%) and 98% of the moderate left, while Hilton takes 98% of the right but only 66% of the moderate right. Becerra also wins the center, by 82% to 18%.
Want to be included in our next poll? Check out the app!
Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our FAQs, polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, and accuracy analysis.
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Xavier Becerra | Steve Hilton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 12% | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 35% | 20% | 98% | 2% | |
| Center | 21% | 20% | 82% | 18% | |
| Moderate Right | 18% | 20% | 34% | 66% | |
| Right | 14% | 20% | 2% | 98% | |
| Region | rural | 16% | 17% | 44% | 56% |
| suburban | 23% | 21% | 61% | 39% | |
| urban | 62% | 62% | 69% | 31% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 22% | 16% | 81% | 19% |
| 30-49 | 34% | 29% | 65% | 35% | |
| 50-64 | 27% | 22% | 60% | 40% | |
| 65+ | 17% | 33% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 39% | 53% | 64% | 36% |
| M | 61% | 47% | 62% | 38% | |
| Party | D | 46% | 48% | 96% | 4% |
| R | 30% | 28% | 5% | 95% | |
| I | 15% | 18% | 71% | 29% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 60% | 51% | 59% | 41% |
| Latino | 26% | 30% | 66% | 34% | |
| Income | Low | 23% | 17% | 69% | 31% |
| Middle | 29% | 29% | 54% | 46% | |
| High | 49% | 54% | 66% | 34% | |
| Education | HS | 17% | 21% | 62% | 38% |
| College | 76% | 62% | 64% | 36% | |
| Grad | 7% | 17% | 64% | 36% |