Becerra Leads Hilton in California Governor Race
ActiVote’s October 16, 2026 California Governor poll finds that Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton by 25.6%. The poll was in the field between September 24 and October 16 (median field date of October 5). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Becerra leads in almost every group: among rural, suburban and urban voters, voters under 50 and aged 65 and older, women and men, White and Latino voters, and at every level of income and education. The one group Hilton leads is voters aged 50 to 64. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole.
Both candidates hold their own party: Becerra takes 95% of Democrats and Hilton 94% of Republicans. Independents favor Becerra by 63% to 37%, and Democrats make up a much larger share of the likely electorate in this poll than Republicans (48% against 28%).
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Becerra and Hilton among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the California electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Becerra holds his side of the spectrum more firmly than Hilton holds his. Becerra wins the left unanimously (100%) and takes 95% of the moderate left, while Hilton takes 85% of the right and 68% of the moderate right. On top of that, Becerra wins the center by 70% to 30%.
Want to be included in our next poll? Check out the app!
Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our FAQs, polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, and accuracy analysis.
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Xavier Becerra | Steve Hilton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Moderate Left | 24% | 20% | 95% | 5% | |
| Center | 17% | 20% | 70% | 30% | |
| Moderate Right | 16% | 20% | 32% | 68% | |
| Right | 19% | 20% | 15% | 85% | |
| Region | rural | 21% | 17% | 55% | 45% |
| suburban | 20% | 21% | 58% | 42% | |
| urban | 59% | 62% | 67% | 33% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 21% | 16% | 76% | 24% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 29% | 65% | 35% | |
| 50-64 | 24% | 22% | 47% | 53% | |
| 65+ | 18% | 33% | 65% | 35% | |
| Gender | F | 39% | 53% | 65% | 35% |
| M | 61% | 47% | 60% | 40% | |
| Party | D | 54% | 48% | 95% | 5% |
| R | 25% | 28% | 6% | 94% | |
| I | 13% | 18% | 63% | 37% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 76% | 51% | 54% | 46% |
| Latino | 17% | 30% | 74% | 26% | |
| Income | Low | 24% | 17% | 65% | 35% |
| Middle | 24% | 29% | 62% | 38% | |
| High | 51% | 54% | 63% | 37% | |
| Education | HS | 18% | 21% | 61% | 39% |
| College | 70% | 62% | 64% | 36% | |
| Grad | 11% | 17% | 61% | 39% |