Bonta Leads Gates in California Attorney General Race
ActiVote’s October 22, 2026 California Attorney General poll finds that Democrat Rob Bonta leads Republican Michael Gates by 17.8%. The poll was in the field between October 4 and October 22 (median field date of October 13). The poll was among 400 likely midterm voters and has an average expected error of 4.9%.
Bonta leads among suburban and urban voters, voters under 50 and aged 65 and older, women and men, Latino voters, and at every level of income and education. Gates leads among rural voters and voters aged 50 to 64, and he narrowly leads among White voters, 51% to 49%. These group figures rest on subsamples for which the expected error is considerably larger than the 4.9% for the poll as a whole.
Both candidates hold their own party: Bonta takes 91% of Democrats and Gates 94% of Republicans. Independents favor Bonta by 57% to 43%, and Democrats make up a much larger share of the likely electorate in this poll than Republicans (48% against 28%).
Political Spectrum
The following graph shows the support for Bonta and Gates among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the California electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each.
Bonta holds his side of the spectrum more firmly than Gates holds his. Bonta takes 99% of the left and 90% of the moderate left, while Gates takes 91% of the right and 69% of the moderate right. On top of that, Bonta wins the center by 64% to 36%.
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 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Rob Bonta | Michael Gates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 23% | 20% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 20% | 90% | 10% | |
| Center | 19% | 20% | 64% | 36% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 20% | 31% | 69% | |
| Right | 17% | 20% | 9% | 91% | |
| Region | rural | 19% | 17% | 44% | 56% |
| suburban | 21% | 21% | 55% | 45% | |
| urban | 60% | 62% | 64% | 36% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 23% | 16% | 68% | 32% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 29% | 59% | 41% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 22% | 48% | 52% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 33% | 62% | 38% | |
| Gender | F | 39% | 53% | 60% | 40% |
| M | 61% | 47% | 57% | 43% | |
| Party | D | 57% | 48% | 91% | 9% |
| R | 23% | 28% | 6% | 94% | |
| I | 12% | 18% | 57% | 43% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 68% | 51% | 49% | 51% |
| Latino | 23% | 30% | 62% | 38% | |
| Income | Low | 25% | 17% | 60% | 40% |
| Middle | 21% | 29% | 63% | 37% | |
| High | 54% | 54% | 56% | 44% | |
| Education | HS | 18% | 21% | 57% | 43% |
| College | 71% | 62% | 57% | 43% | |
| Grad | 10% | 17% | 69% | 31% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Bonta | Gates | Gap | Sample | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22, 2026 | 58.9% | 41.1% | D+17.8% | 400 | ±4.9% |