Baldwin vs. Hovde · September 30, 2024
Baldwin Leads Comfortably in Wisconsin
ActiVote’s September 30, 2024 Wisconsin US Senate poll shows that incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin leads against her Republican challenger Eric Hovde by 8.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 29, 2024 and September 29, 2024 with a median field date of September 13.
Hovde leads among rural voters, those aged 50-64, men, Republicans, middle income voters and those with some college. Baldwin leads in all other categories.
Please note that in the state of Wisconsin, three of the categories normally displayed in our crosstabs have a target of less than 5% of the overall population: young voters (18-29), Black voters, and Latino voters. Therefore, they are not shown in the crosstabs. Participants in these categories are included in the overall result.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Baldwin and Hovde among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. The groups in the swing state of Wisconsin are almost identical to the national average.
Both Baldwin (98%) and Hovde (93%) get the vast majority of their core constituencies: the left and moderate left for Baldwin, and the right and moderate right for Hovde. Baldwin leads among the center.
Comparisons
In 2022, Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson beat his Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by 1.0%. In 2018, incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin beat her Republican challenger Leah Vukmir by 10.8%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · September 30, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Tammy Baldwin | Eric Hovde |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 21% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 20% | 96% | 4% | |
| Center | 18% | 20% | 52% | 48% | |
| Moderate Right | 17% | 20% | 12% | 88% | |
| Right | 11% | 19% | 3% | 97% | |
| Region | rural | 43% | 47% | 37% | 63% |
| suburban | 36% | 33% | 70% | 30% | |
| urban | 21% | 20% | 70% | 30% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 9% | 4% | 85% | 15% |
| 30-49 | 46% | 25% | 65% | 35% | |
| 50-64 | 31% | 30% | 43% | 57% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 41% | 52% | 48% | |
| Gender | F | 32% | 53% | 63% | 37% |
| M | 68% | 47% | 44% | 56% | |
| Party | D | 30% | 31% | 81% | 19% |
| R | 37% | 48% | 29% | 71% | |
| I | 33% | 21% | 71% | 29% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 93% | 88% | 52% | 48% |
| Black | 1% | 4% | 100% | 0% | |
| Latino | 4% | 4% | 76% | 24% | |
| Income | Low | 15% | 18% | 73% | 27% |
| Middle | 52% | 49% | 43% | 57% | |
| High | 34% | 33% | 59% | 41% | |
| Education | HS | 23% | 33% | 61% | 39% |
| Some C | 16% | 24% | 48% | 52% | |
| BSC+ | 61% | 43% | 52% | 48% |